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It’s knockout football from now on at Euro 2024 and our football betting expert Jones Knows unleashes his insight and predictions on the action.

Switzerland vs Italy, Saturday, 5pm

Don’t fear backing the draw is my advice when it comes to European Championship knockout matches. Since Euro 1996, those backing matches to end all square in this competition will have bagged a very healthy stakes level profit. A staggering 45 per cent of knockout matches have in that period ended as a draw. It’s a 19/10 shot with Sky Bet for this one to head to extra-time and that looks a fair shout.

Those looking for a stronger betting angle into the game should focus on Italy corners, where the line looks favourable.

Luciano Spalletti is likely to use the 3-5-2 formation he employed against Croatia which does suit key players like Nicolo Barella and Alessandro Bastoni, who play so well in this system at Inter Milan.

It’s a style of play that encourages the wide players to roam forward into deep crossing positions and this increases the chance of corners being won. The two wing-backs here in Federico Dimarco and Giovanni Di Lorenzo were responsible for winning 70 corners between them in Serie A last season with Dimarco’s average of 1.65 corners won per game only bettered by two other players in the league.

Italy won 11 against Croatia in the 3-5-2 system so the six or more line at 11/8 with Sky Bet looks a cracker.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Italy to win on penalties) | BETTING ANGLE: Italy to win six or more corners (11/8 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Germany vs Denmark, Saturday, 8pm

This looks a great draw for Germany. They remain a team I’m wary about in terms of going all the way as they will be vulnerable to a team that play with quick transitions and speed in wide areas. But Denmark aren’t that team. It’s an ageing squad, lacking imagination in forward areas especially. I’d be surprised if this vibrant Germany don’t deliver in 90 minutes.

Antonio Rudiger is certainly revelling in the home nation vibes playing for this attack-minded Julian Nagelsmann team.

He’s a bit of a showman isn’t he? And twice already at the tournament he’s gone for the spectacular strike from range.

He’s not immune to taking aim from distance. In his last season with Chelsea he had 20 shots from outside the box with six of them hitting the target. You can get 15/2 with Sky Bet on him hitting the target from outside the box – a bet that landed in Germany’s win over Scotland. And the 100/1 on him scoring from outside the box is one for the dreamers.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Antonio Rudiger to have a shot on target from outside the area (15/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) & Rudiger to score from outside the area (100/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

England vs Slovakia, Sunday, 5pm

Expect much of the same from England against a similar opponent to the ones they faced in their group. It will be safe, it will be tough to watch but Gareth Southgate’s side will probably find a way in a turgid, low-scoring encounter.

A penalty to be scored looks a runner to me here at 5/2 with Sky Bet as England are the best team at the tournament at winning penalties, by some distance, yet one hasn’t dropped their way yet.

England have been awarded 35 penalties in just 97 games since Gareth Southgate took the job. That sort of ratio is super high.

Take for example last year’s Premier League campaign. The highest ratio of penalties won per 90 minutes was set by Chelsea, who won 12 penalties in 38 games working out at a 0.32 per 90 ratio. England are working at a 0.35 per 90 ratio for penalties won under Southgate and that’s from a bigger sample size of matches. It’s a skill.

And it’s one of England’s most potent weapons under this manager as they have a tricky forward line, capable of winning fouls.

Meanwhile, Slovakia, who will defend deep, have already conceded a penalty at this tournament vs Romania and conceded two penalties in qualifying.

The numbers are screaming of a strong likelihood of a penalty being scored yet, the Sky Bet odds surrounding don’t mirror that. With Harry Kane’s record from the spot in mind, I’d have this bet closer to 7/4 than 5/2. And of course you have the insurance of a Slovakia penalty being scored in your favour too.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: A penalty to be scored (5/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Spain vs Georgia, Sunday, 8pm

What odds would you have given for this game to be a last-16 fixture at this tournament when the full-time whistle blew after Spain’s 7-1 win over Georgia in qualifying? A million to one, maybe?

On aggregate Spain beat the Georgians 10-2 over those two matches, registering 53 shots to Georgia’s 13.

It’s no wonder Spain are 1/7 with Sky Bet to win in 90 minutes.

Although I’ve got no interest in taking Spain on, it’s hard to ignore just how much of a free-swing this really is for Georgia, who play with such spark and fluency in attack. That does make them a runner here to add to the scoring.

They have scored in 13 of their last 15 games, including in both of those meetings with Spain and in Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze they carry genuine quality. Both teams to score is overpriced at 6/4 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Both teams to score (6/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

France vs Belgium, Monday, 5pm

I’ve been disappointed with both teams so far but the tournament could just start here for both. They are hard to read.

What is glaringly obvious though is that Belgium’s back four, especially Wout Faes and Jan Vertonghen, are going to struggle to handle Kylian Mbappe. That could be the decisive factor.

If somehow Belgium are going to progress then they’ll have to rely on some variance with France’s finishing and hope that Kevin De Bruyne remains in the form we’ve seen from him in this tournament.

He’s been the heartbeat, playing as a roaming no.10. This type of big occasion is made for players of his ilk and it’s his shot on target prices that standout here. The 10/11 with Sky Bet for him to register an effort on target looks big considering how involved he is in the final third and that he’s already had five shots on target at the tournament.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Kevin de Bruyne to have a shot on target (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Portugal vs Slovenia, Monday, 8pm

Forget Cristiano Ronaldo. The main man for Portugal is Bruno Fernandes.

Once Roberto Martinez figures that out, the better Portugal will be for it. Ronaldo has now scored just one non-penalty goal in his last 11 matches for Portugal at major international tournaments and his presence is becoming a problem and a sideshow.

Meanwhile, Fernandes is in the prime of his career now and showed in qualifying that he’s the key to Portugal delivering on the big stage. He grabbed 14 goal contributions and found the net in one of his two starts in the group stages. I’m expecting him to kick on in the knockout stages, starting with what looks a real one-sided contest with Slovenia. The 11/4 with Sky Bet for Fernandes to score in a Portugal win looks a nice price.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Bruno Fernandes to score in a Portugal win (11/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Romania vs Netherlands, Tuesday, 5pm

For someone who has got 11 assists in his last 22 starts for his country, Denzel Dumfries is being grossly underrated by the Sky Bet markets.

When you factor in how heavily fancied Netherlands are and their expected goals return is to score over two goals, the 9/2 on Dumfries assisting a goal really does appeal. Those odds imply a probability of about 18 per cent, I’d have it closer to 30 per cent based on the data and how dangerous Dumfries is down the Netherlands’ right flank.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Denziel Dumfries to register an assist (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Austria vs Turkey, Tuesday, 8pm

The next two weeks should be an exciting ride for punters like me who backed Austria pre-tournament. The 80/1 shots are now 16/1. Not only have Ralf Rangnick’s side showed themselves to be a force, they’ve also landed in the weaker half of the draw after playing no-fear football that saw them top the group.

A collision course with Turkey here could just be the game of tournament. It’s shaping up to be beautiful chaos.

Austria will press hard and fast while Turkey are full of outstanding and exciting individual players in attack that are allowed to express themselves. To the backdrop of this there are two defences that are liable to make mistakes. It just screams goals and cards.

Keeping the over cards lines on your side should prove a profitable call in the knockout rounds. Since Euro 1996 in the knockouts, the average cards per 90-minute stands at a whopping 4.76 and in last 16 matches of the last two Euros, 13 of 16 games saw over 3.5 cards land. If you combine over 2.5 goals here with 40+ booking points using the Bet Builder, you can conjure up a 6/4 shot with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 (Austria to win on penalties) | BETTING ANGLE: Over 2.5 goals & 40+ booking points (6/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

With the first round of games at Euro 2024 now complete, the entertainment level has been high. One of the reasons for that has been the sheer number of long-range goals. 11 so far have come from outside the penalty box.

The goal glut began with two of Germany’s five goals on the opening night coming from distance. That set the tone. Romania scored a couple of their own against Ukraine, Nicolae Stanciu with an early contender for goal of the tournament.

Mert Muldur’s outrageous volley for Turkey against Georgia on Tuesday might just have topped that but does not even count towards the tally – coming from just inside the area. No matter, because the next two did, Arda Guller curling in a beauty.

This is extremely unusual. There were only 17 goals from outside the penalty box at Euro 2016, that number rising to 19 at Euro 2020. But there were 51 matches played at those tournaments. Euro 2024 has seen 11 such goals in only 12 matches.

In their own review of the previous European Championship, UEFA concluded: “This seems to indicate a continuing inclination to work the ball into areas more likely to produce a goal rather than the low-percentage option of striking at goal from distance.”

That is what makes this interesting. There was a time when goal of the month montages would routinely include a collection of thunderous strikes from long distance. The trend now is towards something more intricate. This bucks that trend.

Fewer shots from outside the box is seen as a consequence of the rise of analytics and the expected-goals data now so popular in the game. This analysis highlighted what should have been obvious. Shots from distance are much less likely to succeed.

As a result, coaches have increasingly discouraged it. Couple that with the preference for retaining possession, choosing passes over shots, and the result is that the percentage of shots being taken from outside the box has been decreasing.

Premier League data shows that this past season saw a record low percentage of long shots. It has been gradual over the past decade but significant. From 44.9 per cent of shots coming from outside the box 10 years ago, the number is now 32.8 per cent.

It is being coached out of the game.

Why has Euro 2024 been different? The boring answer is sample size and there will surely be some regression to the mean as the tournament progresses. But 39.2 per cent of the shots have been from outside the box. Something is going on here.

Two theories come to mind, one psychological and the other tactical.

Firstly, the psychological explanation. The emotion of representing your country at a major tournament cuts differently. Visualisation is a huge element of the game for many players and they have been thinking about this summer for months, perhaps years.

Who could blame them if, when the space opens up, they interpret this as the big moment that they had been envisioning for so long, their chance to be the hero of their nation. When that opportunity comes, they do not want to be left wondering.

Perhaps the tactical explanation is more compelling because it highlights another key difference between the trend at club level and the reality of the international game. Club football has become so coached now that rogue decisions are frowned upon.

Increasingly, it is about those prescribed patterns in the final third of the pitch, designed by the world’s best coaches. This football has turned the best players in the world into automatons who know where every team-mate is without even looking.

International football? This is a relatively wild environment. The relationships on the pitch are not so fully formed, the next passing option not always available. And besides, there is no super-coach on the sideline ready to scream if it is ignored.

Most would accept that club football has long since become the pinnacle of the game, the UEFA Champions League being the competition in which the sport is played to its highest standard. But more fun, more spectacular? On this evidence, not necessarily.

Euro 2024 has been all the better for those ambitious efforts. And, intriguingly, there is some statistical evidence emerging that teams might actually be justified in shooting more regularly than they now do. It could be that the dial needs shifting back.

A paper for the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2021 entitled ‘Leaving Goals on the Pitch’ explored this possibility and reached just such a conclusion. It was introduced with a quote from Johan Cruyff. “You can’t score if you don’t shoot.”

That research found that there were areas outside the box from which teams could add between 0.5 and 1.5 goals per season to their overall total if they increased their shot frequency in those zones by 10 to 20 per cent rather than attempting another action.

Passing might lead to a better chance. But, of course, it might not. Eschewing that shot comes with the risk that the better shot never arrives. Indeed, they found that even the very best teams would benefit from not trying yet another pass in certain situations.

Those teams that are not Manchester City? For them, the reasons to take that shot are even more persuasive. Perhaps intuitively, Romania’s players recognised it. Six of their nine shots came from outside the box. That willingness to have a go changed the game.

Would they have been better off waiting for a better chance or picking out a team-mate? Perhaps. Romelu Lukaku will certainly wish that Leandro Trossard had picked him out rather than pulling the trigger on two occasions in Belgium’s defeat to Slovakia.

For now, let’s welcome this wilder style of football with its maverick decision-making. Here’s to Florian Wirtz and Emre Can, to Razvan Marin and Lukas Provod, and all those players who have lit up the first round of group games in Germany.

There has only been one goal from outside the box in a European Championship final in over 30 years, scored by Eder for Portugal in their extra-time win over France at Euro 2016. Maybe it is time for Euro 2024 to finish how it started and deliver us another.

Tag: distance

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