Senior Form Analyst Jamie Lynch looks through the French Oaks field at Chantilly on Sunday and sides with two in the field, live on Sky Sports Racing.
In the last 10 Prix de Dianes, it’s 5-5 between the home defence and the British and Irish raiders. No Irish-trained contenders this time around at Chantilly, but there’s a strong duo from Britain, who represent the Guineas and Oaks form, versus all the meaningful trial winners in France. It’s an excellent edition, propped up by proven form but to be decided by potential, and not to be missed.
1. Candala
Jockey: C D Hayes | Trainer: F Graffard
By Frankel and out of Prix de Royallieu winner Candarliya (also once runner-up to Treve in a Vermeille), which strongly suggests she should be Group class once getting over 1m2f+. Well, she’s had only three races so far, all at just a mile, and she’s already a Group graduate, so it follows that she’s clearly a Classic contender now she’s doing what she’s bred for.
In the Prix de la Grotte on her reappearance, in a supposed Pouliches trial, she came from near-last to first, predictably at her strongest at the finish, to beat Minoushka, with Sparkling Plenty back in fifth. The draw could have been kinder than 12 (remembering the Prix du Jockey Club) but Candala has the biggest ticket to improve in the field, and Chris Hayes has been recruited having already won the Oaks at Epsom for the Aga Khan.
2. Paraiba
Tom Marquand | F Graffard
Took what has turned out to be the notable scalp of Birthe when both made their debut at Deauville last November, then gave unbeaten colt Delius a race at Chantilly over 1m4f. Paraiba is heavy on potential but light on experience and, down in trip and up in class, she’s probably biting off more than she can chew here, compounded by the worst of the draw.
3. Survie
S Pasquier | N Clement
Businesslike when winning both her starts at the back-end of 2023 and, while raising her game more this spring for third in two trials, it has also put limits in place against some of the same rivals as well as newer, better ones here. Surprise if she’s up to this task.
4. Sparkling Plenty
T Piccone | P Cottier
With the same owner, trainer and sire (Kingman), there’s more than a passing resemblance so far to Sauterne, who never went beyond a mile, and therein lies the burning question with Sparkling Plenty: will she stay?
The worry is more trip than talent because she was unlucky not to go closer (than sixth) in the French Guineas, since when she ran away with the Group 2 Prix de Sandringham. At her double-figure odds, a saver at the least makes sense.
5. Dance Sequence
W Buick | C Appleby
The Oaks and Prix de Diane aren’t usually connected because of the different distances and tight turnarounds, but Nashwa in 2022 and Star Of Seville in 2015 both rebounded from Epsom to win at Chantilly, though neither had quite so hard a race as Dance Sequence who battled the track as well as Ezeliya.
In theory, she’s in pole position for this following the Oaks but, in practice, there are various rational reasons why she won’t express herself in the same way, especially as she may be on the flaky side, in mind if not body.
Dance Sequence represents the boys in blue
6. Rock’N’Swing
M Barzalona | A Fabre
Has one of the best pedigree pages in the book, the Fall Aspen family, out of a half-sister to Dubai Millennium. Successful on her first two starts, latterly beating Rouhiya no less, but Rock’n Swing herself got lost in the Pouliches, compounded by a slow start from a double-figure draw.
Stall 13 is no easier here but the intense experience at Longchamp may sharpen and smarten her up and it’s worth remembering that Andre Fabre took silver and bronze in the Prix du Jockey Club with similar sorts.
7. L’Equilbriste
Hollie Doyle | Tim Donworth
Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam as a two-year-old, but ran more in France, and has taken it up a notch based there this season, winning a fillies’ Listed race at Longchamp last month (at 14/1) when she and the second seemed to benefit from playing their hand late. She’s still in the region of 20lb shy of the required standard for a French Oaks.
8.Birthe
A Lemaitre | L Vanska
Has snuck up the rails, so to speak, overlooked and undervalued, not favourite for any of her races but winning three of her last four, small advances making way for a giant jump to win the Group 2 Prix Saint-Alary, comfortably so, and though runner-up Almara did nothing for the form last weekend, back in fifth was War Chimes. Straightforward style will get her far, but she’s further along her career curve than many of these and susceptible to a bit of flair in the finish.
9. Dare To Dream
A Pouchin | G Hernon
Out of a half-sister to Danedream and first increase in distance (on her reappearance) prompted an upturn when she won the Prix Vanteaux. However, failed to back that up when beaten favourite (behind Birthe and Survie) in the Prix Saint-Alary, albeit asked a lot by the ride, trying to come from last in a falsely-run race. With lessons learnt, and some luck with the draw (in 2), it wouldn’t be a surprise if she reversed the Saint-Alary form, but winning it is another matter entirely.
Oisin Murphy takes the ride on the favourite Tamfana
10. Tamfana
Oisin Murphy | D Menuisier
The big eye-catcher in the Guineas when flying home for fourth (at odds of 33/1), but it hardly came from out of the blue given her prior progress, including success in France. Performance and pedigree (by Soldier Hollow) scream that she’ll be all the better with this increased test of stamina, and stall 4 gives her the perfect platform, reunited with Oisin Murphy. In short, Tamfana is the one to beat.
11. Gala Real
C Soumillon | A & G Botti
Hasn’t looked back since her debut, combining style and substance: scoring high style points for her wide-margin wins at Lyon (by 11 lengths) and Saint-Cloud, and the substance coming from the Listed race at Longchamp where she caught none other than Aventure, running each of the three final splits faster than Look De Vega on the same card. The critical issue is the ground, as she has only been in the mud so far on turf and loved it.
12. Bubble Gum
G Mosse | F Chappet
Back-to-back wins in April propose that she’s Listed level, but this is several steps up on that. She’s liable to be overwhelmed and overmatched in a race like this, a bridge too far for her.
Aventure wins Prix de Royaumont
13. Aventure
M Guyon | C Ferland
She gave us something of a ‘hold my beer’ moment 45 minutes after Look De Vega had strutted his stuff in the Prix du Jockey Club, when she all but stole his thunder as she sauntered to success in the Prix de Royaumont (by 7 lengths), but it might have been double that had Guyon not geared down.
She was favourite for that (following her comeback second to Gala Real), so the win was no surprise even if the apparent transformation was, though stepping up to 1m4f was no coincidence, and there’ll be far greater pressures on her with the shorter trip and stronger opposition. Her half-sister Left Hand was second in this in 2016.
14. Halfday
A Madamet | C Laffon-Parias
From a Juddmonte family (her grandam is Midday) and impressive development so far by her, laying the groundwork last December before metamorphosing in April as she surged past Fun With Flags and War Chimes in the Group 3 Prix Cleopatre at Saint-Cloud. Maxime Guyon understandably sticks with Aventure, but Halfday is more than a mere second string – easy to see her finishing in the first three.
JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT
A compelling case can be made for half a dozen of these and but for the draw, and the Prix du Jockey Club fresh in the mind, Candala might have been my pick, in the expectation of a new trip propelling her to Classic heights, though the same is true of the better-drawn TAMFANA, who ran a huge race in the Guineas and really should be clear favourite based on impressions, as well as improvement, from Newmarket.